LAFCA PREDICTIONS

The Los Angeles Film Critics Association may not have been around as long as NYFCC, but their choices, in the past few years, have often been regarded as equal in regard to importance. It was their support that secured There Will Be Blood's standing as a major contender; sure, that year, no-one had a hope against No Country for Old Men, but there were queries as to whether or not TWBB would even be nominated for a time, as hard as that may be to imagine. They can be very reliable, or they can be much more alternative, like a cross between NYFCC and NSFC. In a year like this, where even still, things aren't especially secure, it could go any way at all. After the jump, my predictions.

Best Picture

1. The Artist
2. The Tree of Life

The LAFCA announces a winner and a runner-up, so perhaps take my prediction for runner-up as an alternative rather than a definite. The Artist may be a relatively conventional choice for LAFCA, but it's not a relatively conventional film, so I can easily see this happening. The Tree of Life also feels very much like their cup of tea. As with NYFCC, Melancholia could do very well here, and best not forget Hugo, which I'm sure will continue to show up with considerable frequency.

Best Director

1. Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
2. Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)

I'm not going to predict a split, because I don't think that's ever a sensible decision unless there's a good chance. The two top categories almost always correlate, even in the critics' groups. And, much as I can see Lars von Trier, Martin Scorsese, maybe Tomas Alfredson turning up here, I still think that Hazanavicius and Malick stand the best chances at scoring LAFCA's Best Director prize.

Best Actor

1. Michael Fassbender (Shame)
2. Jean Dujardin (The Artist)

I just can't see The Artist sweeping the top categories - it's a strong contender, but is it that strong? Other than Dujardin, there are other more obvious contenders than Fassbender (Clooney, Pitt...) but I just saw Shame two days ago and can't imagine why anyone wouldn't vote for him. He's bound to win at least something, and continues to show up on Best Actor lists. This is, however, a risky pick, and I'm quite prepared to be proven very wrong.

Best Actress

1. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
2. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)

Another major win for Tilda Swinton would be just the kind of boost she needs - one big win and you're lucky, two and people start taking you seriously. It didn't quite happen when Yolande Moreau did it, but that was LAFCA and NSFC, and she's French. This category remains wide open, and Michelle Williams could easily win too. I'd love to see Glenn Close take it, and don't rule out surprises such as Charlize Theron, Olivia Colman, Kirsten Dunst, Keira Knightley or (gasp!) Rooney Mara...

Best Supporting Actor

1. Albert Brooks (Drive)
2. Christopher Plummer (Beginners)

Well, why not? Albert Brooks is coming on very strong, and I don't think it's a fluke - I think he's a big contenders, maybe even for the Oscar. But he'd have to get past Christopher Plummer, probably this year's most likely winner, to do so. Also standing good chances are Max von Sydow and Kenneth Branagh. LAFCA has been known to make some highly alternative choices in this category though, like last year's Niels Arestrup for A Prophet, so the list of potentials goes on and on...

Best Supporting Actress

1. Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
2. Carey Mulligan (Shame)

If Michael Fassbender has a chance at winning Best Actor, Carey Mulligan certainly has a chance at winning Best Supporting Actress. Perhaps Redgrave and Mulligan is a rather safe couple of choices, but I don't think The Help will show up on any of LAFCA's lists, and against much of the competition, these two are firmly in the lead for this category (IMO).

Best Screenplay

1. Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
2. Abi Morgan and Steve McQueen (Shame)

I'm going to keep holding out for Shame until it either achieves frontrunner status or falls out of contention entirely. However, I'm not confident enough in its chances to predict it for two wins at a major critics' groups like LAFCA, although it is perhaps more likely to do so at something like LAFCA than, say, one of the more obscure groups. Maybe Woody Allen is also a risky choice, but I'm not sure I can pick any specific frontrunner for this one, especially seeing as I can't see Will Reiser winning this.

Best Cinematography

1. Emmanuel Lubezki (The Tree of Life)
2. Robert Richardson (Hugo)

Hugo is bound to turn up somewhere; it's be a big surprise and disappointment if it didn't. However, it's looking like no-one can beat Emmanuel Lubezki this year, certainly not in the critics' groups. We did say that a few years ago with Children of Men, though, and look what happened.

Best Production Design

1. Dante Ferretti (Hugo)
2. Maria Djurkovic (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)

Maria Djurkovic did beat out technical competition in all other aspects of filmmaking at BIFA earlier in the week, so it's worth taking her work seriously, particularly as it has also been very well received by critics in their reviews. And with Tinker Tailor sitting at 89 on Metacritic, it's likely to make an appearance somewhere on a major list some time soon. Nevertheless, this is where I expect Hugo will show up. It's a safe choice from me, and would be a good choice from LAFCA.

Best Music

1. Ludovic Bource (The Artist)
2. Cliff Martinez (Drive)

As much as I may have my personal preferences in this category, I still have no idea how this will go. I'm just riding the waves of support both of these soundtracks have been receiving. This, remember, is not necessarily which score is the best, but which soundtrack (I think). It's also worth remembering that this is the kind of category which they could easily drop entirely.

Best Animated Feature

1. Rango
2. Chico & Rita

Why Chico & Rita? Because that's probably more LAFCA's bag than Tintin. All the same, Rango has been killing the competition thus far, in a way which I had not expected. Again, it's a safe choice, perhaps too safe for LAFCA, but I've done risky before, and am rarely right when I do.

Best Documentary

1. Into the Abyss
2. Project Nim

Don't take my word for it.

Best Foreign Language Film

1. A Separation
2. 13 Assassins

A Separation could keep winning and winning throughout the season, I expect. Other than that, I have no idea. It could be 13 Assassins, it could be any one of dozens of other films. I'm still surprised as to why critics' groups bother with this antiquated category any more. although it surely does give foreign films a boost.

New Generation Award

J.C. Chandor (Margin Call)

alt: Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy May Marlene)

Thought I'd have a pop at this, but I can't stress this enough: I have NO IDEA. As usual...

Looking at this list, it may be a little too safe for LAFCA, but I can't say. They can do safe when they want to. Sure, they could throw the race in a completely different direction with the right choices, or they could pick someone so obscure (like Kim Hye-Ja and Niels Arestrup last year) that they diminish their own influence. We'll just have to wait and see. And I don't know why, but I'm even less confident about my choices for LAFCA than I was for NYFCC and NBR, even though it's later in the race. Perhaps that's just because my choice for NYFCC and NBR were so wrong...