GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS

Let's get straight into things...

Best Picture - Drama
THE DESCENDANTS
EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE
HUGO
MONEYBALL
WAR HORSE
(alt: DRIVE)
Although this list isn't solid, it's certainly strong. These five films are either doing well at the moment or are still threatening to do well with higher-profile groups like the Golden Globes. Drive and The Tree of Life could surprise, considering the support they've been receiving recently, but they seem less likely here than with the critics. Also, this is somewhere The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo could kickstart its campaign, but it's hard to predict it until said campaign actually does start.


Best Picture - Musical or Comedy
THE ARTIST
BRIDESMAIDS
THE HELP
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
YOUNG ADULT
(alt: CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE.)
It was a good summer for comedies, and one of them is on this list. Another is the alternative. There's also a drama in tow, but the HFPA needs to beef up this category with borderline-comedies in order to maintain its relevance. Hence also why The Artist, Midnight in Paris and Young Adult also make the list - none of them outright comedies. Perhaps some of this summer's other comedies might be nominated - Friends with Benefits, Horrible Bosses, Bad Teacher, The Hangover: Part II. Don't scoff - last year, they nominated The Tourist.


Best Director
STEPHEN DALDRY (EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE)
MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS (THE ARTIST)
ALEXANDER PAYNE (THE DESCENDANTS)
MARTIN SCORSESE (HUGO)
STEVEN SPIELBERG (WAR HORSE)
(alt: BENNETT MILLER (MONEYBALL))
If any other films make it into Best Picture - Drama, though, their director may be represented here. As may Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris. Lone directors are also a possibility with the HFPA, despite their ten Best Picture nominees overall as opposed to five Best Director nominees.


Best Actor - Drama
GEORGE CLOONEY (THE DESCENDANTS)
LEONARDO DICAPRIO (J. EDGAR)
MICHAEL FASSBENDER (SHAME)
GARY OLDMAN (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
BRAD PITT (MONEYBALL)
(alt: DEMIAN BICHIR (A BETTER LIFE))
Much as I may still be ripping about the Shame snub at SAG, I don't think it'll happen here. But Fassbender and Oldman are both shaky choices. Similarly, Bichir, Michael Shannon, Ryan Gosling (twice) and Woody Harrelson (to a lesser extent) all stand good chances at being nominated here. But Fassbender and Oldman have the heat at the moment. Fuck, I so hope they don't miss out again.


Best Actress - Drama
GLENN CLOSE (ALBERT NOBBS)
ELIZABETH OLSEN (MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE)
MERYL STREEP (THE IRON LADY)
TILDA SWINTON (WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)
(alt: KEIRA KNIGHTLEY (A DANGEROUS METHOD))
I think they'll consider My Week with Marilyn as a drama. Either way, unless they consider The Help as a drama and My Week with Marilyn as a comedy, Williams would have tough competition - Meryl Streep and Viola Davis. Elizabeth Olsen should have no trouble - they love sexy young women who take their clothes off, so she fits the bill. So does Rooney Mara, but I'm so unsure about Dragon Tattoo's future currently. Keira Knightley also does, and this would be her third nomination, so she's my alternative.


Best Actor - Musical or Comedy
STEVE CARELL (CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE.)
JEAN DUJARDIN (THE ARTIST)
RYAN GOSLING (CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE.)
EWAN MCGREGOR (BEGINNERS)
OWEN WILSON (MIDNIGHT IN PARIS)
(alt: ROBERT DOWNEY JR. (SHERLOCK HOLMES: A GAME OF SHADOWS))
Robert Downey Jr. won this one last time he played Holmes, so don't count him out this time. Two nominations for Crazy, Stupid, Love. on the basis that Gosling is borderline-lead and might get bumped in comedy, and that Gosling is bound to be nominated for at least one Golden Globe this year. Plus he'd look good on the red carpet, and we know how much that means to them. Very good...


Best Actress - Musical or Comedy
VIOLA DAVIS (THE HELP)
CAMERON DIAZ (BAD TEACHER)
EMMA STONE (THE HELP)
CHARLIZE THERON (YOUNG ADULT)
KRISTEN WIIG (BRIDESMAIDS)
(alt: MILA KUNIS (FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS))
You've got to consider the star factor and the babe factor with HFPA, hence nominees like Cameron Diaz and (alternative) Mila Kunis. Unless My Week with Marilyn is regarded as a comedy (and it might well be) or The Help as a drama (and it also might well be), this looks like a very likely list. Maybe Berenice Bejo might be considered lead, but I'm not sure.




Best Supporting Actor
KENNETH BRANAGH (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)
ALBERT BROOKS (DRIVE)
JONAH HILL (MONEYBALL)
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER (BEGINNERS)
MAX VON SYDOW (EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE)
(alt: NICK NOLTE (WARRIOR))
I'm still holding out for Albert Brooks and Max von Sydow. I don't think the fact that they missed out on SAG nominations will matter - the Oscars often match up with SAG, but not the HFPA so often. I feel also that Nick Nolte and Patton Oswalt stand very strong chances, but this category is very wide open at the minute, with a lot of potential nominees, so I don't even stand by my own predictions in this case.


Best Supporting Actress
BERENICE BEJO (THE ARTIST)
SANDRA BULLOCK (EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE)
JANET MCTEER (ALBERT NOBBS)
JESSICA CHASTAIN (THE HELP)
OCTAVIA SPENCER (THE HELP)
(alt: CAREY MULLIGAN (SHAME))
This is a shaky list. I don't even have Melissa McCarthy in my top six, which is a stupid decision, but I'm taking a risk here, in case it's right. Also, I've left Shailene Woodley out, and that's an equally shaky decision, I think. Sandra Bullock is the wild card in this category, but there's buzz building for the film and for her performance, and this is very much the type of nomination we ought to expect from the HFPA.


Best Screenplay
THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE
THE HELP
MONEYBALL
(alt: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS))
Adapted screenplays tend to do better with the Golden Globes, as they tend to be stronger, or perhaps easier to predict in most Oscar seasons. I say stronger - I actually tend to prefer original screenplays, but they're stronger in their positions in the race, These five films are strong contenders and likely nominees here, but so too is Midnight in Paris.


For now, I'm leaving out the other categories. Original Score and Original Song could go any which way with the HFPA, as they could with any other major group in the Oscar race. But I'll hold out on predicting them until we have a clearer picture on how they might turn out, Song in particular. Animated Feature and Foreign Language Film might either be very predictable or (in Foreign Language Film's case) very unexpected, but I don't think Foreign Language Film will hold much clout when it comes to the Oscar, as that's a whole other ball game.

In addition, the HFPA is a very small group - only around 100 members - and their grip on reality outlook on the state of things in Hollywood (HFPA stands for Hollywood FOREIGN Press Association) isn't always as perceptive as that of other major groups. Nevertheless, I don't think they mind much. But what this can often mean is that more than five nominees sneak in - sometimes six, sometimes even seven. And there are several categories here in which I think six or seven nominees might be rather fitting.

Tomorrow, at 8am EST (1pm GMT), they announce. Their TV nominations are also announced then. Woody Harrelson, a potential nominee, is co-announcing - could that mean something? In just over 12 hours (from time of writing), we shall find out...