NBR ANNOUNCE

Best Picture

• HUGO
• THE ARTIST
• THE DESCENDANTS
• DRIVE
• THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
• HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART 2
• THE IDES OF MARCH
• J. EDGAR
• THE TREE OF LIFE
• WAR HORSE

Best Director

MARTIN SCORSESE (HUGO)

Best Actor

GEORGE CLOONEY (THE DESCENDANTS)

Best Actress

TILDA SWINTON (WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN)

Best Supporting Actor

CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER (BEGINNERS)

Best Supporting Actress

SHAILENE WOODLEY (THE DESCENDANTS)

Best Original Screenplay

WILL REISER (50/50)

Best Adapted Screenplay

NAT FAXON, ALEXANDER PAYNE AND JIM RASH (THE DESCENDANTS)

Best Ensemble Cast

THE HELP

Best Animated Feature

RANGO

Best Documentary

• PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY
• BORN TO BE WILD
• BUCK
• GEORGE HARRISON: LIVING IN THE MATERIAL WORLD
• PROJECT NIM
• SENNA

Best Foreign Language Film

• A SEPARATION
• 13 ASSASSINS
• ELITE SQUAD: THE ENEMY WITHIN
• FOOTNOTE
• LE HAVRE
• POINT BLANK

Best Debut Director

J.C. CHANDOR (MARGIN CALL)

Best Breakthrough Performance

FELICITY JONES (LIKE CRAZY)

ROONEY MARA (THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO)

Best Independent Film

• 50/50
• ANOTHER EARTH
• BEGINNERS
• A BETTER LIFE
• CEDAR RAPIDS
• MARGIN CALL
• SHAME
• TAKE SHELTER
• WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN
• WIN WIN

Freedom of Expression Award

CRIME AFTER CRIME

PARIAH

Special Achievement in Filmmaking

THE HARRY POTTER FRANCHISE - A DISTINGUISHED TRANSITION FROM BOOK TO FILM

Spotlight Award

MICHAEL FASSBENDER (A DANGEROUS METHOD / JANE EYRE / SHAME / X-MEN: FIRST CLASS)

It's rather happening as we had expected. The first two critics' groups of the season have spoken, and they can't agree on a single thing. Not one of NYFCC's choices has won here at NBR; the season is still wide open. As I mentioned in my predictions post, George Clooney and Clint Eastwood both have major clout with NBR, and I was right that The Ides of March and J. Edgar would both turn up in their Best Picture Top 10. Unlike the last two years, they chose a Top 10 outright, rather than a Top 10 and a separate winner. Also, The Descendants made a major impact, although failing to win either Best Picture or Director is significant. Perhaps Hugo is flavour of the moment, but it made a strong showing at NYFCC too - a quite different group, the NYFCC, and thus we reach the conclusion that Hugo is a strong contender in the race.

I wasn't sure about my own prediction that The Descendants could win big but not win either of the top two awards, but it turned out to be correct, albeit with a different film winning said top two. Clooney won, as did Shailene Woodley, a result which surprised many, but for which there is a lot of precedent: Cate Blanchett in '01, Gong Li in '05, Catherine O'Hara in '06 were all surprise winners, and their choices of Amy Ryan in '07, Anna Kendrick in '09 and Jacki Weaver in '10 transformed potential major contenders into actual major contenders.

A few interesting observations:

• The Help takes another award, yet under the radar once more. It lost out on a Top 10 slot, but won Ensemble Cast. If course, the only major awards groups to feature this category are Critics' Choice and SAG - crucially, not Oscar. Disappointingly for this film, this was one of its best chances at cracking a major Top 10 list. Support from PGA and/or AFI might render this omission irrelevant though.
• Harry Potter confirms its position as a player in this year's race. There has been scepticism, and there will continue to be, but it clearly has some support. Will this be the first of many special achievement awards? Also, will this be the first of many Best Picture nominations...?
• The Best Actress race is as murky as ever. NBR's Best Actress choices haven't matched with Oscar's since Helen Mirren for The Queen, and last year they championed Lesley Manville in Another Year; she remained a threat throughout December and January, but failed to be nominated. In such a crowded race, Tilda Swinton will require a lot more awards and nominations in order to secure a slot in Oscar's Top 5, although concerns that she might slip through the cracks entirely can now be put to bed. And then there's the tie for Breakthrough Performance: Felicity Jones and Rooney Mara both get a boost from this joint win, and Elizabeth Olsen misses out again. Still, there's time, and I remain confident that Olsen has the edge over her competitors. It would, however, be lovely to see Olivia Colman recognised at some point.
• We can now confirm that The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is good enough to gain traction, although it may need to open in cinemas before it can truly do so. And this may be its downfall - can it afford to allow other contenders to take the lead, when it's such an atypical choice for Oscar? In a crowded year, perhaps so (provided that this year remains as crowded as it currently is), and it's so easy to say that favourites at this time of year are going to sweep - weren't we all saying that last year with The Social Network? The same is true for War Horse, although it was never as likely to succeed with the critics' groups as TGWTDT.

It's another ten days until LAFCA chime in, but plenty of other critics' groups will have announced by then. It's not looking likely that these groups will confirm whether or not we have a frontrunner, more likely that they will verify quite how up in the air things are at the moment. But with the first two critics's groups (and those two being two of the four biggest critics' groups) disagreeing so thoroughly, it may take some time yet before we have any kind of a clearer picture at all...