Best Picture
In one of the closest races in recent years, it's surprising how one-sided the tally of major Best Picture award wins has been so far: 12 Years a Slave having claimed PGA, BAFTA, Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards, and Gravity just PGA. It could go right down to the wire, and the progression of awards over the night may not prove any indicator of where this award might go - 12 Years is the likely favourite for just two other awards, with Gravity leading between four and eight of its other nominations, including Best Director. And just look at 12 Years' ability to win the top awards among other organisations when it has failed to capitalise on hefty nomination totals: two further guild and BFCA wins, one BAFTA and no Golden Globes. Look out for American Hustle to spoil, but in such a close year, the preferential ballot vote may come down to the final round and the top two films, which will probably come down to 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, in the end...
Prediction: 12 Years a Slave (Dede Gardner, Anthony Katagas, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen and Brad Pitt)
Alternative: Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron and David Heyman)
Preference: 12 Years a Slave (Dede Gardner, Anthony Katagas, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen and Brad Pitt)
Best Director
... whereas Best Director looks pretty locked. Predicting a split only makes sense in exceptional circumstances; we had those last year, and we have them again this year. Out of 27 Best Picture wins for 12 Years a Slave among critic groups, 13 corresponding Best Director wins went to Alfonso Cuaron, who also topped the critical consensus chart which I compiled from all of said groups. The same goes for the guilds (where the DGA rewarded Cuaron), and BAFTA, HFPA and BFCA. And that makes for an exceptional circumstance. Steve McQueen is the most likely spoiler (if that's even the right term), which would surely indicate a Best Picture win for 12 Years a Slave.
Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Alternative: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Preference: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Best Actor
The increase in support for Leonardo DiCaprio around the time that ballots were sent out to Academy voters, and a BAFTA win for Chiwetel Ejiofor around the same time gave off the impression that maybe Matthew McConaughey wasn't such a sure thing for this award. But then he wasn't even nominated for the BAFTA, and DiCaprio's ascent was partly as a response to McConaughey's dominance. One way or another, Dallas Buyers Club's two male leads ought to have their respective categories sewn up, considering the level of love for both stars all season, and with no particular frontrunner emerging among the spoilers, McConaughey is an easy prediction for me.
Prediction: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Alternative: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Preference: Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Best Actress
There's not even any competition here. Cate Blanchett will win Best Actress for Blue Jasmine; whatever controversy certain parts of the press were able to manufacture around the recent Woody Allen debacle never amounted to much as far as Blanchett's Oscar chances were concerned, and she's led this race for several months now, all the way since Blue Jasmine's July release last year.
Prediction: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Alternative: Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Preference: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Best Supporting Actor
I probably wouldn't worry too much about this one either... probably. Recent wins for Barkhad Abdi at the LCC (over Jared Leto) and BAFTA (not over Jared Leto) have propelled him into the position of most-likely runner-up. But never mind the fact that it's been several weeks since Leto appeared on stage to give one of his (dire) acceptance speeches - audiences and voters have maintained the level of appreciation for his performance as Rayon that they first showed when the film premiered at TIFF six months ago. An Abdi upset wouldn't be that shocking - think Alan Alda over Eddie Murphy, sort of - though Leto remains the clear, odds-on favourite.
Prediction: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Alternative: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Preference: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Best Supporting Actress
Here's where the acting categories get complicated. The race has taken a fair few swerves in Supporting Actress, and all in one of two directions: critics drove things in Lupita Nyong'o's direction in December, before a Christmas-time surge for Jennifer Lawrence and a Golden Globe win saw her assume the lead. A Critics Choice award and a SAG award for Lupita Nyong'o immediately thereafter reversed these young actresses' fortunes once more, and then a BAFTA win for Jennifer Lawrence seemed to declare the Hunger Games franchise's star the favourite again. Look out for a possible Nyong'o win at today's Spirit Awards, though with a rather different voting membership and with Oscar ballots already handed in, that'll have no influence on the race. Over at Awards Daily, Marshall Flores' stats have Lawrence in the lead, with that strong combination of Golden Globe and BAFTA wins, but my feeling is that 12 Years a Slave is the more popular film, and that Nyong'o's case for winning is rather more compelling. For me, sufficient evidence plus a strong gut feeling suggest one final swerve toward Lupita Nyong'o.
Prediction: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Alternative: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Preference: Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Best Original Screenplay
This one might end up being one of the hardest to call on the night. All signs pointed in Her's favour, as Spike Jonze won significant honour after significant honour, until BAFTA threw David O. Russell and Eric Singer, for American Hustle, a bone two weekends ago. In that instance, Her wasn't nominated, but that hasn't stopped people from speculating if maybe this is the category where American Hustle might reap some gold - it has been overshadowed, since it led the Oscar nominations with Gravity, by Alfonso Cuaron's film and 12 Years a Slave. An outside contender for Best Picture, it'll surely bag at least one other Oscar. Won't it? This one feels like much too big a contender to lose all ten of its nominations. And the conversation for Russell's film has been increasingly favourable over recent days. Look out for Nebraska's Bob Nelson as a shock victor if American Hustle and Her cancel each other out, and look out for how fucking delighted I'll be if that happens.
Prediction: David O. Russell and Eric Singer (American Hustle)
Alternative: Spike Jonze (Her)
Preference: Spike Jonze (Her)
Best Adapted Screenplay
According to the precursors, this one could go any oul way. The WGA (where 12 Years a Slave wasn't eligible) chose Captain Phillips. BAFTA (the Brits) chose Philomena (more Brits). USC Scripter and Critics Choice awards went 12 Years a Slave's way. The Wolf of Wall Street and Before Midnight have each won smaller awards. Evaluating each award as equal, one might see things falling in the favour of either John Ridley for 12 Years or the writers of Before Midnight. Evaluating the circumstances surrounding each win, one might see things falling in Ridley's favour alone. From where I'm standing, Wolf's Terence Winter and Philomena's Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope stand realistic chances of spoiling, or even Captain Phillips' Billy Ray. But the smart money's on Ridley, and obvs I'm the smartest smartypants on the street!
Prediction: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
Alternative: Terence Winter (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Preference: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
