RACE REVIEW - PHILLIPS, HUSTLE UP, HER, GRAVITY DOWN

When BAFTA followed the crowd on Sunday evening, picking 12 Years a Slave for Best Film and little else, and picking Gravity for Best Director and plenty else, they only confirmed what we already know: that this year's Oscar Best Picture race is pretty precarious. In fact, it may be the most unpredictable Best Picture race since I began covering the Oscars, ten years ago. 12 Years a Slave has won all of the major BP awards in the latter, more important half of the season, but has picked up little heat among remaining category's respective races. To me, this represents clear and considerable support for the film as the best of the year, since voters are evidently eager en masse to declare it their favourite of 2013, even if they've failed to lead it to a majority haul at any big awards shows. In the common consensus, Gravity remains a formidable opponent, and with that I cannot argue. But all the evidence implies that Alfonso Cuaron has Best Director sewn up and that, despite a PGA win (in a tie, mind) and a bucketload of cash at the box office, the film is not the Best Picture frontrunner.

Bringing up the rear (among the 'frontrunners', since there are six more films nominated for Best Picture) is American Hustle. Its chances, however, improved with Sunday's BAFTAs - three wins, including one for Best Original Screenplay (David O. Russell's second BAFTA screenplay win in a row, and perhaps expected, since former Original Screenplay leader Her was snubbed entirely by BAFTA) and one for Jennifer Lawrence (less expected, since 12 Years a Slave had been predicted by many to sweep the BAFTAs) thrust it back into the running for a number of awards; there's obviously a lot of love for the film, even though it had appeared to be losing steam after the Golden Globes and Critics Choice.

Meanwhile, Captain Phillips has been gifted with quite the boost across several of its categories lately. Best Supporting Actor wins for Barkhad Abdi across two separate British voting bodies (over Jared Leto at LCC, though not at BAFTA) make him the most likely spoiler in that category, over presumed winner Leto. And Rush's surprise BAFTA win for Best Editing - what with it not being nominated for the Oscar - makes Gravity's shots at winning that award seem even slimmer, especially since Captain Phillips won the ACE Eddie. In the two sound categories, it poses a strong rivalry to Gravity, and both films won major MPSE awards. Could Gravity actually be losing steam? Six BAFTAs wouldn't appear to suggest as such, but it was certainly capable of winning more.