All signs were, prior to release, that Captain America: The Winter Soldier would, indeed, achieve the highest April opening weekend in domestic box office history. Data since it opened on Thursday evening has confirmed this, but speculation that it may become the first film in the month to crack $100 million in its initial three days has been both buoyed by the figures so far and dented by them. The other Avengers star to have debuted the year before The Avengers in 2012 and to have released a sequel since is Thor, and Thor: The Dark World experienced a 30% bump on its opening weekend gross from its predecessor. That would put The Winter Soldier at $85 million for the weekend. But, with a stronger connection to The Avengers and better reviews, it had always looked likely to crack at least $90 million - even the studio agreed. Thursday night screenings brought in $10.2 million, which, should the film follow a pattern from all three of the most recent Avengers films, would put it well above that, though, with $110-$120 million. But Friday grosses don't support the case for such strong numbers - $37 million would put it just shy of the $100 million mark based on data from The Avengers (Captain America's last film) and Iron Man 3 (a post-Avengers, well-reviewed film), or just above it based on data from Thor: The Dark World (its most natural parallel). Whatever the case, that April record looks extremely secure, however. I'll have full details early next week.
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