Best Picture
In one of the closest races in recent years, it's surprising how one-sided the tally of major Best Picture award wins has been so far: 12 Years a Slave having claimed PGA, BAFTA, Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards, and Gravity just PGA. It could go right down to the wire, and the progression of awards over the night may not prove any indicator of where this award might go - 12 Years is the likely favourite for just two other awards, with Gravity leading between four and eight of its other nominations, including Best Director. And just look at 12 Years' ability to win the top awards among other organisations when it has failed to capitalise on hefty nomination totals: two further guild and BFCA wins, one BAFTA and no Golden Globes. Look out for American Hustle to spoil, but in such a close year, the preferential ballot vote may come down to the final round and the top two films, which will probably come down to 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, in the end...
Prediction: 12 Years a Slave (Dede Gardner, Anthony Katagas, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen and Brad Pitt)
Alternative: Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron and David Heyman)
Preference: 12 Years a Slave (Dede Gardner, Anthony Katagas, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen and Brad Pitt)
Best Director
... whereas Best Director looks pretty locked. Predicting a split only makes sense in exceptional circumstances; we had those last year, and we have them again this year. Out of 27 Best Picture wins for 12 Years a Slave among critic groups, 13 corresponding Best Director wins went to Alfonso Cuaron, who also topped the critical consensus chart which I compiled from all of said groups. The same goes for the guilds (where the DGA rewarded Cuaron), and BAFTA, HFPA and BFCA. And that makes for an exceptional circumstance. Steve McQueen is the most likely spoiler (if that's even the right term), which would surely indicate a Best Picture win for 12 Years a Slave.
Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Alternative: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Preference: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Best Actor
The increase in support for Leonardo DiCaprio around the time that ballots were sent out to Academy voters, and a BAFTA win for Chiwetel Ejiofor around the same time gave off the impression that maybe Matthew McConaughey wasn't such a sure thing for this award. But then he wasn't even nominated for the BAFTA, and DiCaprio's ascent was partly as a response to McConaughey's dominance. One way or another, Dallas Buyers Club's two male leads ought to have their respective categories sewn up, considering the level of love for both stars all season, and with no particular frontrunner emerging among the spoilers, McConaughey is an easy prediction for me.
Prediction: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Alternative: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Preference: Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Best Actress
There's not even any competition here. Cate Blanchett will win Best Actress for Blue Jasmine; whatever controversy certain parts of the press were able to manufacture around the recent Woody Allen debacle never amounted to much as far as Blanchett's Oscar chances were concerned, and she's led this race for several months now, all the way since Blue Jasmine's July release last year.
Prediction: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Alternative: Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Preference: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Best Supporting Actor
I probably wouldn't worry too much about this one either... probably. Recent wins for Barkhad Abdi at the LCC (over Jared Leto) and BAFTA (not over Jared Leto) have propelled him into the position of most-likely runner-up. But never mind the fact that it's been several weeks since Leto appeared on stage to give one of his (dire) acceptance speeches - audiences and voters have maintained the level of appreciation for his performance as Rayon that they first showed when the film premiered at TIFF six months ago. An Abdi upset wouldn't be that shocking - think Alan Alda over Eddie Murphy, sort of - though Leto remains the clear, odds-on favourite.
Prediction: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Alternative: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Preference: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Best Supporting Actress
Here's where the acting categories get complicated. The race has taken a fair few swerves in Supporting Actress, and all in one of two directions: critics drove things in Lupita Nyong'o's direction in December, before a Christmas-time surge for Jennifer Lawrence and a Golden Globe win saw her assume the lead. A Critics Choice award and a SAG award for Lupita Nyong'o immediately thereafter reversed these young actresses' fortunes once more, and then a BAFTA win for Jennifer Lawrence seemed to declare the Hunger Games franchise's star the favourite again. Look out for a possible Nyong'o win at today's Spirit Awards, though with a rather different voting membership and with Oscar ballots already handed in, that'll have no influence on the race. Over at Awards Daily, Marshall Flores' stats have Lawrence in the lead, with that strong combination of Golden Globe and BAFTA wins, but my feeling is that 12 Years a Slave is the more popular film, and that Nyong'o's case for winning is rather more compelling. For me, sufficient evidence plus a strong gut feeling suggest one final swerve toward Lupita Nyong'o.
Prediction: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Alternative: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Preference: Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Best Original Screenplay
This one might end up being one of the hardest to call on the night. All signs pointed in Her's favour, as Spike Jonze won significant honour after significant honour, until BAFTA threw David O. Russell and Eric Singer, for American Hustle, a bone two weekends ago. In that instance, Her wasn't nominated, but that hasn't stopped people from speculating if maybe this is the category where American Hustle might reap some gold - it has been overshadowed, since it led the Oscar nominations with Gravity, by Alfonso Cuaron's film and 12 Years a Slave. An outside contender for Best Picture, it'll surely bag at least one other Oscar. Won't it? This one feels like much too big a contender to lose all ten of its nominations. And the conversation for Russell's film has been increasingly favourable over recent days. Look out for Nebraska's Bob Nelson as a shock victor if American Hustle and Her cancel each other out, and look out for how fucking delighted I'll be if that happens.
Prediction: David O. Russell and Eric Singer (American Hustle)
Alternative: Spike Jonze (Her)
Preference: Spike Jonze (Her)
Best Adapted Screenplay
According to the precursors, this one could go any oul way. The WGA (where 12 Years a Slave wasn't eligible) chose Captain Phillips. BAFTA (the Brits) chose Philomena (more Brits). USC Scripter and Critics Choice awards went 12 Years a Slave's way. The Wolf of Wall Street and Before Midnight have each won smaller awards. Evaluating each award as equal, one might see things falling in the favour of either John Ridley for 12 Years or the writers of Before Midnight. Evaluating the circumstances surrounding each win, one might see things falling in Ridley's favour alone. From where I'm standing, Wolf's Terence Winter and Philomena's Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope stand realistic chances of spoiling, or even Captain Phillips' Billy Ray. But the smart money's on Ridley, and obvs I'm the smartest smartypants on the street!
Prediction: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
Alternative: Terence Winter (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Preference: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
Best Cinematography
I had to laugh when I scanned the other four cinematography nominees for a potential alternative. Just to see if staring at their names might inspire me at all. It kinda didn't. I picked Philippe Le Sourd for The Grandmaster. It just seems like the kind of cinematography they'd normally pick, at least a few years back. But this isn't a normal year. This is Emmanuel Lubezki's year. And about fucking time.
Prediction: Emmanuel Lubezki (Gravity)
Alternative: Philippe Le Sourd (The Grandmaster)
Preference: Emmanuel Lubezki (Gravity)
Best Editing
The verdict's out on how much exactly the Best Editing Oscar category matters any more. It has been said that it's not possible to win a Best Picture Oscar any more without an Editing nomination, which is nonsense - it's just a peculiarity that has withstood these past few decades and held strong, but it's hardly something that plays on voters' minds when filling out their ballots, is it? ACE Eddie winners were Captain Phillips in Drama and American Hustle in Comedy or Musical; with its stronger standing in Best Picture, that'd seem to swing things in Hustle's favour. On the other hand, there's Gravity, which could swiftly sweep up the technical awards. So it's a three-horse race, which makes this a very tough one to decide. In recent years, this category has even thrown up a few shocks, such as Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall becoming the first editors in Oscar history to win consecutive awards, for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo in 2011, a film snubbed from Best Picture and which won no other awards. That was somewhat flashier editing, though, than that in either of this year's underdogs, 12 Years a Slave (expected to be here) and Dallas Buyers Club (just happy to be here).
Prediction: Christopher Rouse (Captain Phillips)
Alternative: Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger (Gravity)
Preference: Joe Walker (12 Years a Slave)
Best Production Design
I had Anna Karenina down as my prediction to win this award last year, and Life of Pi down as my alternate. The winner, in the end, was Lincoln. Appropriately, this year looks no easier to call. That's the kind of category I like. Twelve years ago, Catherine Martin won Oscars for both her production and costume design for husband Baz Luhrmann's Moulin Rouge! But that was a much more popular (if lower-grossing...) film than The Great Gatsby, so I'm not so sure of Ms. Martin's chances at either award this year - the only two for which Gatsby is nominated. Gravity might win, if it carries off the sweep few are predicting it to any more but which it's certainly still capable of. 12 Years a Slave could too, somewhat like Lincoln did last year. Even American Hustle could! I'm choosing Her as a somewhat wild card alternative, due to its striking, memorable and contextually-valuable sets.
Prediction: Beverley Dunn and Catherine Martin (The Great Gatsby)
Alternative: K.K. Barrett and Gene Serdena (Her)
Preference: K.K. Barrett and Gene Serdena (Her)
Best Costume Design
Newly separated from the old design branch, the costume designers this year made their smartest picks among films which failed (disappointingly) to secure Production Design nominations. But neither the multi-talented William Chang (on his first Oscar nomination, amazingly) for The Grandmaster nor Michael O'Connor (on his third, having won for The Duchess) for The Invisible Woman stands much of a chance against the other three. There's Catherine Martin, who could be winning two awards tonight, for The Great Gatsby, Michael Wilkinson with his eye-catching designs for the extremely popular American Hustle and industry veteran Patricia Norris for 12 Years a Slave, whose CDG win probably isn't a sign of her chances improving at the Oscars. Norris is an icon among costume designers, but her work on 12 Years maybe isn't as glitzy for the average Academy voter. Back in the 80s and 90s, it was often considered that whatever film won Costume Design would then go on to win Picture. And so we wait...
Prediction: Catherine Martin (The Great Gatsby)
Alternative: Michael Wilkinson (American Hustle)
Preference: William Chang (The Grandmaster)
Best Sound Mixing
How do Oscar voters (sound branch members excluded) discern between sound mixing and editing? Looking back through recent years suggests that they see it this way: mixing, correctly, is how the entire soundscape is mixed, and editing, incorrectly, is basically just explosions and shit. When these two awards don't go to the same film, there tends to be an obvious reason. Dreamgirls and Les Miserables winning Sound Mixing because musicals tend to have the edge in this category, The Dark Knight beating Sound Mixing winner and Sound Editing nominee Slumdog Millionaire because it has more explosions and shit. This year, I'm predicting an extremely close race between Captain Phillips and Gravity between these two categories, though we'll never know, since vote tallies are not publicly declared. Gravity won the Cinema Audio Society award, and I expect that the Academy will follow suit by recognising the beautiful and inventive sound mix from Gravity's peerless crew. Either way, Chris Munro's probably gonna win!
Prediction: Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Skip Lievsay and Chris Munro (Gravity)
Alternative: Chris Burdon, Chris Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith and Mark Taylor (Captain Phillips)
Preference: Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Skip Lievsay and Chris Munro (Gravity)
Best Sound Editing
And now for the bit that makes no sense. I expect Captain Phillips to beat Gravity to the award for Sound Editing. It has rather fewer explosions, though at least you can actually hear what happens in Captain Phillips! I know how daft this is - Gravity has the technical branches of the Academy in awe, and likely the non-technical branches in awe of its technical work, it has the lead for the Sound Mixing race and is thus the most likely contender for the Sound Editing award too, it has ten nominations, it has its sci-fi setting, it has boatloads of cash in the bag, it has a Best Director win and a possible Best Picture win and it has the uniqueness of its premise and the equally unique opportunities that afforded its sound designers, who pulled off terrific work. But like I wrote above, the average Academy member considers sound editing to be just explosions and shit. And all those vivid and creative sound effects in Captain Phillips constitute exactly that kind of shit. Splitting up these awards will probably be the silliest thing I do in my predictions this year - I always have at least one nonsensical hunch like this, and it almost always ends in embarrassment.
Prediction: Oliver Tarney (Captain Phillips)
Alternative: Glenn Freemantle (Gravity)
Preference: Glenn Freemantle (Gravity)
Best Visual Effects
It wasn't obvious when Avatar won Best Cinematography and Visual Effects alike - The Hurt Locker could have won Cinematography. Nor when Inception won them both - it had neither award secured. Nor Hugo, since The Tree of Life and Rise of the Planet of the Apes looked kinda unstoppable in each of those categories respectively. Life of Pi? Well, maybe then, yeh. Because by that stage, after Hugo, we'd all learned how this thing worked. Best Cinematography and Best Visual Effects are, to voters, essentially the same thing nowadays. Thank goodness Emmanuel Lubezki decided to work on a VFX-heavy feature at last. Because make no mistake, Gravity is winning Best Visual Effects. If the recent results in this category have illustrated anything, it's that a Best Picture nomination helps a lot when it comes to winning for your visual effects - a recent tradition, now, since it actually extends back a year prior to when Avatar won, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button took this award (and was probably placed in second for Best Cinematography). Hugo's win made this extremely clear. I chose an alternative as a means of maintaining continuity.
Prediction: Neil Corbould, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Tim Webber (Gravity)
Alternative: David Clayton, Joe Letteri, Eric Reynolds and Eric Saindon (The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug)
Preference: Neil Corbould, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Tim Webber (Gravity)
Best Makeup
Voters have quite a clear choice in this category, and it doesn't include Bad Grandpa. I'd rather watch a film of Academy voters' reactions to watching Bad Grandpa than watch The Lone Ranger again, though. There are the subtle shadings of Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews' work on Dallas Buyers Club, strictly character-work there on that low-budget feature. And there are the wild wonders of Gloria Pasqua Casny and Joel Harlow's work on The Lone Ranger, from the William Fichtner's grotty face mask (terrific), to younger Johnny Depp's Native American paint (fine), to older Johnny Depp's aging makeup (awful). Whereas those more standout makeup effects might normally have won over voters, I expect that the broad support for Dallas Buyers Club, which is the favourite to win at least two other awards tonight, will help it to a win in this category.
Prediction: Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews (Dallas Buyers Club)
Alternative: Gloria Pasqua Casny and Joel Harlow (The Lone Ranger)
Preference: Steve Prouty (Bad Grandpa)
Best Original Score
Were 12 Years a Slave's Hans Zimmer nominated here, or were Saving Mr. Banks nominated anywhere else, this one might not seem so easy to call... at least, between two films. I'd say forget about The Book Thief, whose John Williams has won so many times before. And forget about Philomena and Saving Mr. Banks, whose Alexandre Desplat and Thomas Newman have not, alas. Anyway, the musical scores for Her and Gravity are superior works to those for the other three films. Look for Her, which is my alternative in three categories and my prediction in none, to produce a minor upset here - it's the only film to have garnered nominations for both musical categories this year, and its acclaimed score is by William Butler and Owen Pallett from Arcade Fire. But with Gravity leading the way through the technical categories, and with its brilliant, highly memorable and extremely prolific (in the film itself, naturally) music by Steven Price, I'm quite confidently predicting it to win for Best Original Score tonight. Unlike its projected wins for Best Cinematography and Visual Effects, though, this is by no means a done deal.
Prediction: Steven Price (Gravity)
Alternative: William Butler and Owen Pallett (Her)
Preference: Steven Price (Gravity)
Best Original Song
Sad to say that there are two good songs nominated for the Best Original Song Oscar this year and that neither have mustered up enough buzz to qualify as either my prediction or my alternative. I'd have preferred 'Alone Yet Not Alone' to anything by U2. Since this is a film awards body, the winning song should surely be one which, like the other winners in the other categories, serves its film. 'Ordinary Love' does no such thing; the other three do. I have something of an allergy to the kind of modern musical torch song the likes of which 'Let It Go' exemplifies - it's the favourite, because everybody on the entire fucking planet has seen Frozen by now and because the Academy eats up overblown shit like that. Pharrell Williams is maybe a little too hip for them (don't bring up Eminem and don't bring up Three6Mafia - their competition wasn't nearly this strong) and they've never even heard of Karen O. So it's Broadway vs. Galway, I guess, since U2 did pull off a Golden Globe win... actually, no, that has nothing to do with it - those notorious star-fuckers the HFPA were always gonna do that. Can you tell how much I fucking hate this category?
Prediction: Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez - 'Let It Go' (Frozen)
Alternative: Adam Clayton, Dave Evans, Paul Hewson and Larry Mullen Jr. - 'Ordinary Love' (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Preference: Spike Jonze and Karen Orzolek - 'The Moon Song' (Her)
Best Animated Feature
Before Christmas, critics couldn't help but vote for Miyazaki Hayao's purported final film, the highly-acclaimed The Wind Rises, as their favourite animated film of 2013. Cut to after Christmas, and Disney's Frozen is on its way to possibly crossing $400 million at the domestic box office, and they couldn't help but vote for the relevant choice! Because no-one wishes to be seen to be out of step with a bunch of senile, artistically-illiterate sacks of dust less than the arbiters of art and culture in our society! The more discerning crowd within AMPAS have a choice between two films, The Wind Rises and Ernest & Celestine, whereas the people-pleasers have just the one reputable choice, Frozen, which has cleaned up with animated awards from here, there and everywhere this season. Unfortunately, The Wind Rises is one of only two feature films nominated for an Oscar this year that I have not yet seen. Obvs I'll see it asap.
Prediction: Frozen (Chris Buck, Peter Del Vecho and Jennifer Lee)
Alternative: The Wind Rises (Miyazaki Hayao and Suzuki Toshio)
Preference (out of four): Ernest & Celestine (Didier Brunner and Benjamin Renner)
Best Documentary
The case for 20 Feet from Stardom: it's the one audiences actually wanted to see, and it'll appeal to the less critical-minded members of the Academy (and you know there's a good few of them!). The most seen, though, doesn't always mean the most high-profile, which leads me to the case for The Act of Killing: it's far and away the critics' choice, and has been drawing nothing but more and more buzz as its profile as become higher and higher, and this has continued in recent weeks. Also, voters must have viewed all five of the nominated films, which I expect includes a sizeable portion of those members whom we documentary fans can trust to make informed decisions. But then there's the case for The Square: less hard-hitting than Killing, more immediately relevant and politically influential than 20 Feet. Shit, where there ever a more politically relevant film nominated for an Oscar? Jehane Noujaim also won the DGA for The Square, beating Killing's Joshua Oppenheimer and Cutie and the Boxer's Zachary Heinzerling. I'd call this category the toughest to call this year.
Prediction: The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sorensen)
Alternative: The Square (Karim Amer and Jehane Noujaim)
Preference: The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sorensen)
Best Foreign Language Film
Just behind Best Documentary as the year's second toughest to call is Best Foreign Language Film. Word is that The Great Beauty is voters' favourite by some margin. It's an 'art film', sure, but if the Academy can get behind an art film, it's a Fellini homage art film. More emotionally-charged, socially-conscious are The Broken Circle Breakdown and The Hunt, both films in the vein of previous winners in this category, in that they typify the type of film Oscar often favours - socially liberal, artistically conservative. Thriller Omar, the second of just two Oscar nominees I haven't had a chance to view as yet, might appeal to voters in that it's unlike any of the other nominees (or so I believe); ditto The Missing Picture, which is unlike any other nominee in Oscar history, and had better bloody well win cos that'd be met satisfied for the whole night, hell the whole fucking year. The fact that only Academy members who have seen all five films may vote (thus ruling me out, cos otherwise yeh I'm a member!) might seem to help out films like The Missing Picture, in that at least it gives them an audience. But AMPAS has proven before that this process tends to yield disappointingly unadventurous picks, like Departures and In a Better World.
Prediction: The Great Beauty - Italy
Alternative: The Hunt - Denmark
Preference (out of four): The Hunt - Denmark
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